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SMTC 2021: Political will and time the missing components from shipping’s transition away from fossil fuels

Dr Tristan Smith, Lead Author for IMO’s 3rd and Author of the 4th Greenhouse Gas Study, shares his thoughts on alternative marine fuels with Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times.
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Dr Tristan Smith

The following interview arranged by Informa Connect is part of pre-event coverage for the upcoming Singapore Maritime Technology Conference 2021 (SMTC 2021), where Manifold Times is an official media partner. Readers can find out more about the virtual event by clicking on the link here. 

The only obstacles in the path of shipping’s transition away from fossil fuels now rests in the hands of governments and time, according to the Lead Author of the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s 3rd and Author of the 4th Greenhouse Gas Study.

Dr Tristan Smith, a Reader at University College London, shared his thoughts in a recent interview with Singapore bunkering publication Manifold Times when asked of the challenges for alternative bunker fuels to be successfully used by the shipping industry.

“There is no technical challenge that we are aware of that makes a number of candidate fuels impossible to use. The only missing components for shipping’s transition away from fossil fuel use is political will and time,” he states.

“The two are in competition – the longer it takes for political will to formulate, the less time there will be for shipping’s transition.”

According to Dr Smith, who is also Head – Maritime Workstream at World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition (CPLC), climate change is already occurring with devastating impacts – where vulnerable countries such as Bangladesh and other island nations are expected to be lost over the coming three decades of the economic life of today’s newbuildings.

“The political will is growing but insufficiently fast to leave sectors like shipping enough time to change as smoothly as would be desirable,” he notes.

“The consequence of political will growing too slowly is that it is then more likely that collective failure and indecision by governments at venues like the IMO will mean shipping has only a very short period (e.g. a decade) to transition from fossil fuels to a completely new energy system.

“Predicated on the fact that in any analysis to achieve the IMO’s 2050 goals, a significant move away from fossil fuel use needs to start before the end of this decade and see very rapid growth of zero carbon energy/fuel use during the 2030s.

“This urgency will be required if no significant progress has been made by the end of this decade, or alternatively we will all experience much more significant, deeper, and longer lasting climate related impacts and damage to ecosystems and society.”

Dr Smith believes that without policy that can stimulate the deployment and of shipping’s zero carbon energy/fuels by the middle of this decade, we will make it more difficult for companies to adapt to new business models, energy products, operations and skills.

“Significant turbulence and disruption will likely result and many companies will be likely to foreclose,” he expects.

“This is all avoidable, it just requires engagement in the issue and encouragement of governments and IMO to place avoidance of dangerous climate change at the heart of their decision making process.”

Dr Smith, meanwhile, forecasts hydrogen-based material to be the bunker fuel of the future due to its benefits.

“There are a number of candidate fuels which on paper can have zero GHG emissions. But I think shipping’s solution will be a fuel which is sustainable (in all senses of the word) and scalable (e.g. able to be produced in the volumes required to get to 2-300 million tonnes of fuel oil equivalent as per today’s consumption),” he notes.

“The scalability and sustainability requirements make it very challenging, if not impossible, for any fuel with carbon to be competitive to those fuels which are derived more directly from hydrogen production e.g. hydrogen, or the simpler synthesised products like ammonia.

“Fuels like methanol require a source of carbon which can either be a biomass derived source of carbon, or it will have to be ‘sucked’ from the atmosphere. If it is just CO2 captured from a point source, then either it won’t be sustainable (e.g. it will come from a fossil combustion process), or it won’t be scalable.

“And if the CO2 has to be extracted from the atmosphere, it is difficult at this point in time to see that that could be cost-competitive to other processes/fuels.”

Moving forward, though regulation for shipping GHG emissions is currently focused on tank-to-wake emissions calculations (EEDI, EEXI, CII) Dr Smith believes using a well-to-wake approach to measure emissions to be more prudent in the long term.

This is because taking a well-to-wake perspective to calculate emissions enables maritime firms to communicate to clients, financiers, and stakeholders how risks associated with climate change are being managed.

Further, it allows firms to be ready for when regulation and market forces increasingly come in to control emissions on a lifecycle / well-to-wake basis.

“For the longer term all the fuels that shipping will need to move towards as it moves away from using fossil fuels, can have significant upstream GHG emissions,” explains Dr Smith.

“It remains unclear as to whether it will be IMO that regulates to control upstream emissions, national governments, the market or all of these actors, but this will be necessary because in many cases the lower cost fuels are those with the highest upstream emissions which make regulation on operational emissions alone very unlikely to result in addressing the fundamental problem – which is the continued increase in CO2 (and other GHG) emissions in the atmosphere.”

Note: Dr Tristan Smith is a panellist at the Industry Think Tank: Longer Term GHG Implications and Exploring Game Changing Technologies that would Address Emission Targets virtual roundtable scheduled to take place on Tuesday (20 April) at 18:25 – 19:10 SGT as part of SMTC 2021.

 

Photo credit: University College London
Published: 16 April, 2021Dr

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Methanol

GENA Solutions: Total renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline increases from 61.8 to 62.2 Mt by 2032

Information shared by MI – the Global Methanol Alliance meant to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.
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MI – the Global Methanol Alliance recently shared with Manifold Times the renewable and low-carbon methanol project pipeline August 2026 release produced by GENA Solutions Oy.

Information from the release is meant to provide the bunkering publication’s readers with insight on renewable methanol availability, and to assist the maritime industry in the adoption of methanol as a mainstream marine fuel heading into IMO 2030/2050.

Key takeaways from GENA’s August 2026 Methanol release are as follows:

  • As of the end of August 2026, GENA tracks 286 renewable and low carbon methanol projects, representing 62.2 Mt of capacity by 2032. This includes 25.1 Mt of e-methanol, 25.9 Mt of biomethanol, and 11.2 Mt of low carbon methanol capacity.
  • Two new projects were added to Project Navigator last month, while one frozen project was excluded. The project pipeline increased by 0.4 Mt month on month.
  • Four new offtake agreements were registered during August, including two biomethanol and two e-methanol agreements.
  • About 8% of the cumulative renewable methanol project pipeline capacity has reached FID so far, with another 11% at the FEED stage.
  • Considering the current uncertainty around regulatory developments and demand growth, GENA projects that renewable methanol capacity could reach 6 Mt to 12 Mt by 2031.

Note: The full article can be viewed here.

Renewable methanol project pipeline 4 Renewable methanol by feedstock 8 Renewable methanol by region 7 Project pipeline by status Methanol capacity scenarios

 

Photo credit: GENA Solutions
Published: 4 September, 2026

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Business

Singapore: MPA urges maritime firms to prepare for potential haze with plan

MPA encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

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August 31, 2026

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RESIZED SG bunker tanker

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) on Monday (31 August) issued Port Marine Circular No. 9 of 2026 on steps for maritime companies to take for potential haze affecting Singapore:

BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN FOR HAZE

This circular supersedes Port Marine Circular No. 09 of 2023.

With reference to the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) joint media release issued on 9 August 2026, hotspots were observed in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, with prevailing winds potentially bringing smoke haze towards Singapore. The dry conditions may further increase the likelihood of haze affecting Singapore. The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) encourages all maritime companies, especially those with workers performing outdoor work to maintain a business continuity plan for haze.

MPA advises all maritime companies to monitor the PSI level through the media and the NEA’s website (www.haze.gov.sg), keep at least a one-week supply of N95 masks for workers especially those who work outdoors, and observe the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) Haze guidelines and advisory for work which can be found on their website (www.mom.gov.sg/haze). The latter include guidelines to ensure that stocks of N95 masks are periodically inspected, remain serviceable, and not expired.

The visibility in the Singapore Strait and port waters could be significantly reduced in the event of haze. During periods of restricted visibility, shipmasters are advised to keep a proper lookout and navigate with caution. They are also advised to comply with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and in particular Rule No. 19, Rule No. 20 and Rule 35 concerning conduct of vessels in restricted visibility, exhibition of navigation lights and sound signals in restricted visibility, respectively.

In the interest of safety of navigation and life at sea, the Port Master may restrict the movement of harbour craft and pleasure craft in the port waters during reduced visibility conditions.

 

Photo credit: Manifold Times
Published: 31 August, 2026

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Alternative Fuels

DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of IMO NZF in its current form to its outright rejection, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term bunker fuel and technology strategies.
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August 28, 2026

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DNV report: Regulatory uncertainty demands fleet strategies built for multiple futures

Regulatory uncertainty is increasing pressure on shipowners to make investment decisions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios, said classification society DNV on Thursday (27 August). 

According to DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050, stronger global regulatory signals could accelerate the uptake of energy-efficiency measures, enabling the global fleet to consume up to 25% less energy by 2050 compared to a scenario where regulation is driven by regions.

The report examines four regulatory scenarios, ranging from adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework (NZF) in its current form to its outright rejection, which could lead to a period of prolonged regulatory gridlock, and explores the implications of these outcomes for fuel demand, energy efficiency uptake, and long-term fleet fuel and technology strategies.

Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO Maritime, DNV, said: “Ships ordered today will operate well beyond 2050, but many of the factors shaping their future performance remain uncertain. Regulatory requirements are advancing faster than the fuel, infrastructure, and technological systems needed to support them, making long-term investment decisions increasingly complex. The industry therefore needs greater clarity and alignment among all stakeholders to provide the confidence required for long-term investment. In the meantime, shipowners need strategies that deliver benefits today while remaining resilient across a range of regulatory and market outcomes.”

Energy efficiency is one of the most immediate and practical levers available to shipowners, delivering value across regulatory outcomes whether implemented at the newbuild stage or as a retrofit. A case study of a hydrodynamic measures retrofit on a 5,000 TEU container vessel showed potential annual fuel savings of 16%, with a payback time of around one to four years depending on future fuel prices. Retrofits can add similar value across many ship types and with sufficient planning can typically be completed during a standard class-renewal dry docking.

The development of the marine low-GHG fuel market remains a key challenge. While significant progress has been made in expanding alternative-fuel capabilities of vessels, scaling fuel production depends on confidence that demand will materialize. DNV projects shipping demand for low-GHG fuels to range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030 and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes, with uptake also shaped by future uptake of shore power, plug-in hybridization, nuclear power, and onboard carbon capture systems.

Current project pipelines indicate a maximum global supply of 270 Mtoe by 2030, although actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share. However, the cost of reducing emissions varies significantly between fuel pathways, with abatement costs ranging from about 180 to 1,290 USD per tonne of CO₂ avoided, highlighting the importance of regulation and market incentives in enabling low-GHG fuel markets to develop.

Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of Maritime Forecast to 2050, said: “Scenarios explored in this year’s report show how different regulatory futures can lead to very different outcomes in energy efficiency uptake, fuel demand, and consequently, GHG emissions. By testing fuel and technology choices across multiple scenarios, shipowners can identify strategies that create value today while preserving flexibility as regulation, fuel availability, prices, and technologies evolve. Strategies that each owner chooses will also be dependent on their fleet type and operating context.”

Key findings from the report: 

  • Several regulatory futures remain possible as the IMO continues negotiations on the Net-Zero Framework, with these outcomes shaping investment decisions, low-GHG fuel uptake, and energy-efficiency deployment across the global fleet.
  • With global regulatory incentives in place, the world-fleet could consume 25% less energy by 2050 than under a scenario limited to regional regulations.
  • Energy efficiency can pay off regardless of regulatory outcome – 5,000 TEU container ship case study shows 16% annual fuel savings from hydrodynamic measures retrofit.
  • Shipping demand for low-GHG fuels could range from 4 to 22 Mtoe by 2030, and 33 to 185 Mtoe by 2050, depending on regulatory outcomes and the availability of these fuels in a competitive global market.
  • Current project pipelines indicate that a maximum of 270 Mtoe of supply could be available by 2030, though actual volumes are likely to be lower due to project delays and other uncertainties, and shipping will need to compete with other industries for its share.
  • Testing fuel and technology strategies across different scenarios can help shipowners identify robust choices for an uncertain transition. Testing, piloting, and verifying technologies can provide the trusted performance data needed to make investment decisions with greater confidence.

Note: DNV’s 10th Maritime Forecast to 2050 can be found here. 

 

Photo credit: DNV
Published: 28 August, 2026

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